Yaşar Aydın
The PKK announced that it was ending its armed struggle, which it had been waging for over 40 years, with a symbolic ceremony broadcast to the whole world. Then came Erdoğan’s ‘good news.’ However, this good news had nothing to do with solving the Kurdish issue or taking the necessary democratic steps in the country. As soon as the images were released to the agencies, Erdoğan and Bahçeli clearly stated what they intended to achieve with the disarmament process.
In his speech announcing the beginning of a Turkish, Kurdish and Arab alliance in the Middle East, Erdoğan declared that this process would also be continued in the country through an alliance between the AKP, MHP and DEM. Looking back from today, it is clear how the process was built by the US over the past 15 months. Although Bahçeli, Öcalan and Erdoğan are the visible faces of this process, even the government does not hide the existence of a more powerful figure behind the scenes. It is not for nothing that the spokespeople of the People’s Alliance praise Trump at every opportunity and emphasise the harmony between them.
THE DIRECTION IS CHANGING
For nearly 30 years, US officials have been trying to steer Turkey in a new direction with similar statements. This direction is diametrically opposed to the Western civilisation that the founders of the Republic had envisioned. They want a Turkey that turns its face towards the Middle East and builds its future there. Of course, there is no need to even mention the need to protect US and Israeli interests.
We have all witnessed how the process accelerated with the overthrow of the Ecevit government and the rise of the AKP to power. From the 1 March resolution to the BOP, it was the political Islamists who approached this project with the greatest enthusiasm.
Once obstacles such as Iraq, Libya and Syria were removed with Ankara’s help, there were no more obstacles in the way of the US-Israel project. We can now clearly see that the Palace regime, led by Erdoğan and Bahçeli, has long been involved in this project. The missing link here, the Kurds, were to be included in the process through Öcalan. And that is exactly what happened.
It seems that Erdoğan and Bahçeli will try to turn the country’s course towards the Middle East with all their might. This orientation has formed the strategic line of the one-man regime. The fact that Erdoğan, Foreign Minister Fidan, or MIT President Kalın hardly speak about anything outside the Middle East cannot be explained solely by the region’s volatility.
On issues such as Gaza and Iran, they appear to be acting more cautiously than in previous periods in order to avoid falling out with their allies. Even when getting involved in developments in Syria, they are acting with extreme caution and seeking help from US Ambassador Barrack.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE STATE?
Erdoğan and Bahçeli believe that by following the Middle East policy outlined by the US, they will gain the power to govern Turkey. Various steps are being taken in this direction. However, this situation is too deep to be explained solely by the pre-election quest for power. This is because the likelihood of the People’s Alliance emerging victorious in a normal election is now quite slim. Therefore, a journey beyond the election is being planned, one that involves the construction of a new Turkey. They believe they can survive with a new regime dominated by ethnicity and the concept of the ummah, and they want to design the country in this way. This is why they need an alliance that is not limited to the election. They need a state apparatus that faces the Middle East, with all institutions and policies restructured according to this new era. Let’s call it what it is: a new state of their own, replacing the old state established in 1923. And here lies a small problem: the people do not want it.
IS THERE A CHANCE OF SUCCESS?
The AKP, which has ruled the country for 23 years, is experiencing its weakest period in history. Aside from problems in education and health, objections to the country’s direction have reached 80%. Consider this: the quotas for Imam Hatip High Schools, one of the government’s biggest projects, are becoming emptier every year. Islamism is losing ground. Sensitivity towards secularism has reached its peak among young people. The educated class is seeking ways to emigrate to the West. And under all these conditions, the government wants to bring Turkey into the Middle East axis with a Turkish, Kurdish and Arab alliance. Whatever is ‘cooked up’ in parliament or at the top of politics, it does not seem possible for the Turkish, Kurdish, Alevi and Sunni peoples of Turkey to eat this meal.
The one-man regime sees this reality and is therefore suppressing it with all its might. It is trying to force people into line. That is why the detentions, arrests, punishments and bans that have been going on for months are not only an attempt to stay in power, but also to eliminate all organised forces that stand in its way. The regime believes that once it has neutralised the organised segments of society, the broader public will be unable to object. What a huge mistake.
To think that the broad social segments that object to the regime we live in will accept a more reactionary and authoritarian regime is only possible if one observes Turkey from the palace. The reactions will be harsh not only from the opposition but also from many different segments of AKP and DEM voters. Indeed, Erdoğan’s statement of intent was corrected by both DEM’s Pervin Buldan and AKP’s Ömer Çelik.
Nevertheless, Erdoğan has made his goal and his vision for Turkey clear. Now it is up to the majority, which amounts to nearly 70% of the country, to respond to this vision. How do they want to live, and how do they plan to achieve it? The crux of the matter will be resolved by the answer to this question.
Note: This article is translated from the original article titled Yeni ittifaktan yeni devlete mi?, published in BirGün newspaper on July 14, 2025.